Arithmetic, Population and Energy - FULL LENGTH

Your point reminds me of my favorite guest lecture I've ever seen: ▶ this video About 2/3rds through makes the same point you do.

in “There’s a heatwave in the sea and scientists are worried” · View on HN

▶ this video "the greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function" not a high tech talk, or particularly technically complex, but it shows a common blindspot in a way that is both clear, enlightening and frightening.

in “Ask HN: What's your favorite tech talk?” · View on HN

> Burn it all down and start over We won't be the ones doing that. > We're going to have to figure this sustainability thing out though It may be already late. I wish it wasn't so. I think we could have chance at repairing it ... if only we would do what's necessary. But we're not doing what's necessary, we never started even discussing it, and I'm starting to doubt that we'll ever do. We're talking only about climate change, but that's only one of the symptoms of the overshoot. Even people @ hacker news mostly don't have a clue. > we can't just ignore the problems We've been ignoring them for 50-70 years. The limits to growth / club of Rome was in 1972? So far ... we did nothing but ignored the problems. We may cross the 1.5C threshold in 5 years. Not in 2050 as previously expected, but in 5 years. And we're still pursuing economic growth. Have you noticed any evidence to the contrary lately? > it's going to be a big challenge, and things may get ugly I recommend few videos for you. I must warn you ... it may hamper your ability to enjoy parties. Collapse: The Only Realistic Scenario - Arthur Keller [link] How to Enjoy the End of the World - Dr. B. Sidney Smith [link] Arithmetic, Population and Energy - Dr. Albert A. Bartlett ▶ this video Why Societies Collapse And What it Means for Us - Joseph A. Tainter [link] Revealing the Naked Emperor – Paris, 2° & Carbon Budgets - Kevin Anderson [link]

in “How, Mathematically, We’re Fucked: Exponential growth on a finite planet” · View on HN

Do you imagine we will box up our terrestrial waste heat and launch it into the sun? The portion people who leave the Earth do not matter, the fate of the portion who remain remains the same. See "Arithmetic, Population and Energy: Sustainability 101", Al Bartlett [link] Full length video: ▶ this video

in “Solving climate change by abusing thermodynamic scaling laws” · View on HN

See this video from about 1999 - Arithmetic, Population and Energy by Dr Albert Bartlett, about this timestamp[1] for one example. It's mostly about oil, but he cites the work of M Hubbert which was from ~1956 and predicting peak oil production in the USA around 1980 and running out maybe in 2100. Not the "running out soon" that you claim. He also suggests the drops in production which delay the Hubbert peak correspond to OPEC oil price rises. Then see his updated talk from 2011 link[2] which includes " what we're taking out each year is something like three times what we're discovering each year ". Wikipedia critiques the Hubbert curve[4] saying " new extraction methods began reversing this trend beginning in the mid-2000s decade, with production reaching 10.07 million b/d in November 2017 – the highest monthly level of crude oil production in U.S. history ". The US Energy Information Authority (EIA) explains[3] " much of the increase in 2009 was associated with deepwater developments in the Federal Gulf of Mexico " and " Operators drilling at the Bakken and other shale formations are combining horizontal wells and hydraulic fracturing ". That is, turning to resources which are harder and more expensive to extract, resources which return fewer barrels of usble oil per barrel of oil of energy put in to extract them than easier to access resources. In the first talk he says " We have very good ways now of estimating how much oil remains undiscovered. Now every so often someone

in “When Fossil Fuels Run Out, What Then? (It's 2060) (2019)” · View on HN

Specifically: "In 2016, a report published by the UK All-Party Parliamentary Group on Limits to Growth concluded that "there is unsettling evidence that society is still following the 'standard run' of the original study – in which overshoot leads to an eventual collapse of production and living standards".[45] The report also points out that some issues not fully addressed in the original 1972 report, such as climate change, present additional challenges for human development." Also Al Bartlett: "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." Transcript: [link] Video: ▶ this video Previously mentioned: [link]

in “Some corals regrow after 'fatal' warming” · View on HN